---

name: estimate description: "Estimate task effort from complexity, dependencies, velocity, risk. Structured estimate with confidence levels." argument-hint: "[task-description]" user-invocable: true allowed-tools: Read, Glob, Grep model: sonnet

Estimate

Phase 1: Understand the Task

Read the task description from the argument. If the description is too vague to estimate meaningfully, ask for clarification before proceeding.

Read CLAUDE.md for project context: tech stack, coding standards, architectural patterns, and any estimation guidelines.

Read relevant design documents from design/gdd/ if the task relates to a documented feature or system.

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Phase 2: Scan Affected Code

Identify files and modules that would need to change:

• Assess complexity (size, dependency count, cyclomatic complexity)
• Identify integration points with other systems
• Check for existing test coverage in the affected areas
• Read past sprint data from production/sprints/ for similar completed tasks and historical velocity. If there is none, say so under Notes and Assumptions — "No sprint history found; this estimate is not calibrated to the team's velocity" — and treat that as a risk in the confidence level, not as a silent padding of the figures.

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Phase 3: Analyze Complexity Factors

Code Complexity:

• Lines of code in affected files
• Number of dependencies and coupling level
• Whether this touches core/engine code vs leaf/feature code
• Whether existing patterns can be followed or new patterns are needed

Scope:

• Number of systems touched
• New code vs modification of existing code
• Amount of new test coverage required
• Data migration or configuration changes needed

Risk:

• New technology or unfamiliar libraries
• Unclear or ambiguous requirements
• Dependencies on unfinished work
• Cross-system integration complexity
• Performance sensitivity

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Phase 4: Generate the Estimate

## Task Estimate: [Task Name]
Generated: [Date]

### Task Description
[Restate the task clearly in 1-2 sentences]

### Complexity Assessment

| Factor | Assessment | Notes |
|--------|-----------|-------|
| Systems affected | [List] | [Core, gameplay, UI, etc.] |
| Files likely modified | [Count] | [Key files listed below] |
| New code vs modification | [Ratio] | |
| Integration points | [Count] | [Which systems interact] |
| Test coverage needed | [Low / Medium / High] | |
| Existing patterns available | [Yes / Partial / No] | |

**Key files likely affected:**
- `[path/to/file1]` -- [what changes here]

### Effort Estimate

| Scenario | Days | Assumption |
|----------|------|------------|
| Optimistic | [X] | Everything goes right, no surprises |
| Expected | [Y] | Normal pace, minor issues, one round of review |
| Pessimistic | [Z] | Significant unknowns surface, blocked for a day |

**Recommended budget: [Y days]**

### Confidence: [High / Medium / Low]

[Explain which factors drive the confidence level for this specific task.]

### Risk Factors

| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-----------|--------|------------|

### Dependencies

| Dependency | Status | Impact if Delayed |
|-----------|--------|-------------------|

### Suggested Breakdown

| # | Sub-task | Estimate | Notes |
|---|----------|----------|-------|
| 1 | [Research / spike] | [X days] | |
| 2 | [Core implementation] | [X days] | |
| 3 | [Testing and validation] | [X days] | |
| | **Total** | **[Y days]** | |

### Notes and Assumptions
- [Key assumption that affects the estimate]
- [Any caveats about scope boundaries]

Output the estimate with a brief summary: recommended budget, confidence level, and the single biggest risk factor.

This skill is read-only — no files are written. Verdict: COMPLETE — estimate generated.

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Phase 5: Next Steps

• If confidence is Low: recommend a time-boxed spike (/prototype) before committing.
• If the task is > 10 days: recommend breaking it into smaller stories via /create-stories.
• To schedule the task: run /sprint-plan update to add it to the next sprint (if the project has no sprint plan, as on the default minimal workflow, add it to the brief's build order instead).

Guidelines

• Always give a range (optimistic / expected / pessimistic), never a single number
• The recommended budget should be the expected estimate, not the optimistic one
• Round to half-day increments — estimating in hours implies false precision for tasks longer than a day
• Do not pad estimates silently — call out risk explicitly so the team can decide
• Confidence is Low whenever the approach is undecided or the core requirements are still TBD — a range built on an unmade decision is a guess