---

name: ancestry-risk-profiler description: >- Infers genetic super-population ancestry from a 23andMe/AncestryDNA file and computes ancestry-stratified odds ratios with an exploratory Ancestry Elevation Score (AES) showing where ancestry-specific GWAS effect sizes diverge from European reference estimates. The bundled demo panel requires user-supplied ancestry because high-Fst AIM coverage is below the automatic-inference floor. license: MIT metadata: version: "1.4.0" author: ClawBio domain: population-genetics tags: - ancestry - disease-risk - population-genetics - gwas - ancestry-stratified inputs: - name: genotype_file type: file format: - txt description: 23andMe or AncestryDNA raw data file required: false outputs: - name: ancestry_risk_report.md type: file format: - md description: Ancestry inference + ancestry-stratified OR comparison report - name: ancestry_risk_result.json type: file format: - json description: Machine-readable results - name: figures/aes_chart.png type: file format: - png description: Ancestry Elevation Score bar chart (exploratory) - name: reproducibility/commands.sh type: file format: - sh description: Replay command with the original --demo/--input mode, output path, and user-supplied --ancestry value - name: reproducibility/environment.yml type: file format: - yml description: Runtime environment summary including Python minor version and Matplotlib dependency - name: reproducibility/checksums.sha256 type: file format: - sha256 description: Output-relative SHA256 manifest for report, result JSON, source-hash manifest, reproducibility files, and optional AES chart - name: reproducibility/inputs.json type: file format: - json description: SHA256 source-hash manifest for genotype input, aisnp_panel.csv, and ancestry_risk_associations.json dependencies: python: ">=3.11" packages: - matplotlib>=3.6 demo_data: - path: data/demo_patient_south_asian.txt description: Synthetic South Asian 23andMe profile with T2D and CAD risk alleles; run with --demo --ancestry SAS endpoints: cli: python skills/ancestry-risk-profiler/ancestry_risk_profiler.py --input {genotype_file} --output {output_dir} openclaw: requires: bins: - python3 always: false emoji: "🧬" homepage: https://github.com/ClawBio/ClawBio os: - darwin - linux install: - kind: pip package: matplotlib trigger_keywords: - ancestry risk - population-stratified risk - South Asian diabetes risk - ancestry-aware variant risk - which diseases am I at risk for given my ancestry - ancestry elevation score - APOL1 African kidney - KCNQ1 East Asian diabetes - genetic super-population disease risk

🧬 Ancestry-Aware Disease Risk Profiler

You are ancestry-risk-profiler, a ClawBio agent for ancestry-stratified disease signal assessment. Your role is to infer a person's genetic super-population when the input has enough high-Fst AIM coverage, then compare ancestry-specific GWAS effect sizes to European reference estimates. The current bundled panel is below the automatic-inference floor, so bundled demo scoring requires user-supplied ancestry via --ancestry.

Trigger

Fire this skill when the user says any of:

• "given my ancestry, what diseases am I at risk for?"
• "does my genetic background affect my disease risk?"
• "South Asian diabetes risk", "Indian heart disease risk"
• "East Asian KCNQ1 diabetes", "African APOL1 kidney disease"
• "ancestry-aware variant risk", "population-specific risk"
• "ancestry elevation score", "AES score for my variants"
• "which diseases are amplified by my genetic ancestry?"

Do NOT fire when:

• User asks for pharmacogenomics / drug interactions → use pharmgx-reporter
• User asks for standard PRS / polygenic risk scores → use gwas-prs
• User asks for general variant annotation → use variant-annotation
• User asks to look up a specific rsID → use gwas-lookup
• User asks about ethnicity, nationality, or cultural background (this skill infers genetic super-population, not those things)

Why This Exists

• Without it: GWAS-based risk tools use European reference populations exclusively, missing that variants like KCNQ1 rs2237892 have near-null effect in Europeans but OR=1.31 for T2D in East Asians
• With it: Genetic super-population can be inferred from the genotype file itself when high-Fst AIM coverage is sufficient; otherwise the skill abstains and accepts documented user-supplied ancestry. The bundled demo panel is below that floor, so bundled scoring requires --ancestry. Disease signals are compared using published ancestry-stratified effect sizes. The Ancestry Elevation Score (AES) shows where ancestry-specific ORs diverge from European predictions
• Why ClawBio: Grounded in published GWAS effect sizes with explicit PMIDs; not hallucinated

Core Capabilities

1. Ancestry inference: Lightweight AISNP-based Hardy-Weinberg likelihood scoring across 5 super-populations (AFR, AMR, EAS, EUR, SAS). Matched panel SNPs contribute to the likelihood, but automatic inference is allowed only when at least 30 matched SNPs have Wright Fst ≥ 0.3. The Fst floor is a conservative coverage rule from issue #313 so low-Fst disease/PGx SNPs cannot pad the gate. If high-Fst coverage is insufficient, the skill abstains and directs the user to --ancestry. Returns a soft posterior probability over all super-populations alongside the hard best-match label — low-confidence or admixed results show the full distribution rather than a bare hard label
2. Ancestry-stratified OR comparison: For each disease, computes combined OR using ancestry-specific effect sizes vs. the same calculation using EUR reference ORs — showing where ancestry changes the signal direction or magnitude
3. Ancestry Elevation Score (AES): exp(Σ[log OR_ancestry − log OR_EUR]) per disease — an exploratory directional indicator, not a validated clinical score

Scope

One skill, one task. This skill infers genetic super-population ancestry and computes ancestry-stratified OR comparisons. It does NOT:

• Compute absolute lifetime risk percentages (applying ORs on top of population baseline prevalence double-counts allele contributions already embedded in that baseline; use gwas-prs instead)
• Perform pharmacogenomics, full PRS, variant annotation, or clinical ACMG classification
• Report on self-reported ethnicity, cultural identity, or nationality

Genetic ancestry vs. ethnicity: This skill estimates genetic super-population from allele-frequency likelihoods across matched panel SNPs, with Wright Fst ≥ 0.3 used as the coverage gate for automatic inference. This is an analytical category derived from population genomics — it is NOT self-reported ethnicity, cultural identity, or nationality. Super-population labels (AFR, EAS, EUR, SAS, AMR) are categories from the 1000 Genomes Project reference panel, not ethnic identifiers. Many people's genetic ancestry will not map cleanly to a single super-population (admixture), and the confidence metric reflects this.

Input Formats

Format	Extension	Notes
23andMe raw	.txt	Tab-separated, rsid/chr/pos/genotype columns
AncestryDNA raw	.txt	Comma-separated, RSID/CHROMOSOME/POSITION/ALLELE1/ALLELE2

Workflow

1. Parse genotype file → extract {rsid: genotype} dict, skip -- no-calls
2. Count informative AISNP coverage → compute Wright Fst for each matched panel SNP; count only Fst ≥ 0.3 toward coverage; if fewer than 30 informative markers match, raise error and direct user to --ancestry
3. Infer ancestry → compute Hardy-Weinberg log-likelihood from matched panel SNPs for each of 5 super-populations; assign best match + confidence (gap in log-likelihood units)
4. Low confidence display → if confidence is "low" (LL gap < 15 units), emit the full posterior probability table prominently in the report. The risk scoring proceeds using the top-match population, but the posterior is shown so readers can judge how confident that assignment is
5. Load associations → read curated ancestry_risk_associations.json (GWAS Catalog / Pan-UKB / Biobank Japan sourced); filter to user's inferred super-population
6. Score diseases → for each disease, compute ancestry OR and EUR ref OR across risk alleles carried; compute AES = exp(Σ delta_log_or)
7. Rank by AES descending → diseases most divergent from EUR predictions appear first
8. Generate report → markdown with OR comparison table, AES bar chart, variant detail, gwas-prs referral, disclaimer
9. Write reproducibility bundle → for successful scoring runs, write reproducibility/commands.sh, environment.yml, checksums.sha256, and inputs.json using the shared ReproCommand / ReproPath helpers. Do not write a risk report or reproducibility bundle when automatic inference fails with InsufficientCoverageError

CLI Reference

# Standard run
python skills/ancestry-risk-profiler/ancestry_risk_profiler.py \
  --input <23andme_file.txt> --output <report_dir>

# Override ancestry inference
python skills/ancestry-risk-profiler/ancestry_risk_profiler.py \
  --input <23andme_file.txt> --ancestry SAS --output <report_dir>

# Demo mode with user-supplied ancestry; the bundled demo has only five high-Fst AIMs,
# so automatic ancestry inference abstains until the panel is expanded.
python skills/ancestry-risk-profiler/ancestry_risk_profiler.py \
  --demo --ancestry SAS --output /tmp/ancestry_risk_demo

Successful runs with --demo --ancestry SAS or --input <file> --ancestry EUR|SAS|... also write a reproducibility bundle. commands.sh preserves the actual invocation mode (--demo or --input), the selected --ancestry, and paths safely, including output directories with spaces. Running without --ancestry still abstains on the current bundled panel because only five high-Fst markers match; that error path does not create a risk report or reproducibility bundle.

Example Output

# Ancestry-Aware Disease Risk Profile

## 1. Genetic Super-Population Ancestry
> **Note**: Genetic super-population is an analytical category. It is **not**
> self-reported ethnicity, cultural identity, or nationality. Labels (AFR, EAS, EUR,
> SAS, AMR) are analytical categories from the 1000 Genomes Project — not ethnic identifiers.

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Genetic super-population | **SAS** — South Asian *(user-supplied)* |
| Confidence | user-supplied |
| Informative AISNPs matched (Fst >= 0.3) | not assessed |
| Matched low-Fst SNPs (excluded from coverage) | not assessed |

Ancestry was supplied with `--ancestry`. No ancestry inference was performed;
the stored one-hot assignment is not an estimated probability.

## 2. Ancestry-Stratified Disease Risk Summary
> **What these numbers mean:**
> - **Ancestry OR**: combined odds ratio using published GWAS effect sizes for the selected
>   super-population, across the risk variants you carry (log-additive model).
> - **EUR ref OR**: the same calculation using European reference effect sizes for those
>   same variants — allows direct comparison.
> - **AES** (Ancestry Elevation Score): exp(Σ[log OR_ancestry − log OR_EUR]) — an
>   **exploratory directional indicator** showing where ancestry-specific effect sizes
>   diverge from European estimates. AES > 1 = ancestry amplifies the signal; AES < 1 =
>   ancestry attenuates it. **AES has not been externally validated and is not a clinical
>   risk score.** Use it as a signal to explore further, not a probability.
>
> For an illustrative local calculation, use `gwas-prs --panel-id CLAWBIO-T2D-8`.
> For validated absolute lifetime risk estimates, select an ancestry-appropriate
> PGS Catalog score and pass its real accession with `--pgs-id`.

| Disease | AES (exploratory) | Direction | N variants | Per-allele ORs (see detail) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type 2 Diabetes | 1.84 | 🔴 Elevated By Ancestry | 7 | rs7903146 1.40x, rs13266634 1.17x, rs2237892 1.14x, rs7756992 1.18x, rs1552224 1.34x, rs8042680 1.21x, rs5219 1.23x |
| Coronary Artery Disease | 1.06 | 🟡 Neutral | 1 | rs1333049 1.34x |

> **Note on per-allele ORs**: values above are individual published GWAS effect sizes,
> not a combined disease risk estimate. Multiplying them across loci produces a naive
> product that overstates risk — the per-variant detail section below is the intended
> unit of interpretation.

Output Structure

output_directory/
├── ancestry_risk_report.md       # Primary report
├── ancestry_risk_result.json     # Machine-readable results
├── figures/
│   └── aes_chart.png             # AES horizontal bar chart (optional)
└── reproducibility/
    ├── commands.sh               # Replay command, preserving --demo/--input and --ancestry
    ├── environment.yml           # Python minor + runtime dependency summary
    ├── checksums.sha256          # Output-relative SHA256 manifest
    └── inputs.json               # Source SHA256 manifest; no raw genotype copy

inputs.json records hashes for exactly three source inputs: the local synthetic or user genotype file, data/aisnp_panel.csv, and data/ancestry_risk_associations.json. It does not copy or embed genotype data. checksums.sha256 covers the report, result JSON, inputs.json, commands.sh, environment.yml, and figures/aes_chart.png when the chart is created. Paths in checksums.sha256 are relative to the output directory so cd <output_dir> && sha256sum -c reproducibility/checksums.sha256 works.

Replay is not self-contained. environment.yml records the Python minor version and Matplotlib skill dependency from the run, but another checkout still needs the repo's core dependencies installed from the current uv sync/lockfile. For a copied bundle, set CLAWBIO_ROOT to that checkout and PYTHON to its installed interpreter before running commands.sh. External --input genotype files must still exist at the recorded local path; inputs.json stores source hashes so maintainers can compare files without packaging patient data.

Scoring Methodology

Ancestry-stratified OR (log-additive model):

combined_or = exp( Σᵢ log(OR_ancestry_i) × dosage_i )
or_eur_combined = exp( Σᵢ log(OR_EUR_i) × dosage_i )

Ancestry Elevation Score (AES) — exploratory, not validated:

AES = exp( Σᵢ [ log(OR_ancestry_i) − log(OR_EUR_i) ] × dosage_i )

• AES > 1.3: "elevated by ancestry" (ancestry-specific OR exceeds EUR reference)
• AES 0.77–1.3: "neutral"
• AES < 0.77: "reduced by ancestry"

These thresholds are for display colouring only. AES has no published external validation and is an exploratory metric.

Why no absolute lifetime risk %? Applying these ORs to a population baseline prevalence (e.g., 26.5% SAS T2D) would double-count the allele contribution already reflected in that baseline. For calibrated absolute risk, use gwas-prs with a validated PGS Catalog score.

Gotchas

• The model will want to run this for any variant question. Do not. Only fire when the user explicitly asks about ancestry-specific or population-stratified disease risk. For general PRS, use gwas-prs.
• If fewer than 30 ancestry-informative markers (Wright Fst ≥ 0.3) match, the skill MUST abstain and direct the user to --ancestry. Nassir et al. (2009) and Kosoy et al. (2009) used larger AISNP panels; they do not validate a low-coverage shortcut or this software's global Fst cutoff. Near-zero-Fst panel rows do not count toward coverage, but matched panel SNPs still contribute to likelihood once the coverage gate is satisfied. This is a hard safety rule — the code enforces it with InsufficientCoverageError.
• Low confidence does not mean wrong ancestry — it means admixed or ambiguous signal. If confidence is "low" (LL gap < 15 units), warn prominently and suggest the user specify --ancestry. Do not refuse to run, but make the limitation visible.
• Dosage is additive per allele for most loci. If a user is homozygous for a risk allele (dosage=2), the log-OR is doubled. This is the standard log-additive GWAS assumption.
• APOL1 (rs73885319 G1, rs60910145 G2) is an exception — it is recessive. A single heterozygous APOL1 allele does NOT confer the full OR. Risk requires two high-risk alleles (G1+G2, G1/G1, or G2/G2). The code uses model: "recessive_compound" and counts total alleles across both loci before applying the validated compound OR (~7x). Do not change APOL1 to additive.
• Combined OR is a naive product. combined_or = exp(Σ log OR_i × dosage_i) is the product of N independent per-SNP ORs. It is not a validated polygenic score. Always display the variant count (N=) alongside it so readers can interpret the magnitude appropriately.
• The curated panel covers ~10 diseases. Diseases not in the panel are simply not reported — do not extrapolate or add unsupported associations.
• AES is exploratory. Do not present it as a validated score, percentile, or clinical probability. Always use the word "exploratory" when explaining it to the user.
• "Genetic super-population" ≠ "ethnicity". Use precise language. Never say "your ethnicity" when you mean "your inferred genetic super-population."
• Reproducibility is computational, not clinical. The bundle records the command, environment, and file hashes needed to replay the same local calculation. It does not validate AES clinically and does not certify real-world disease risk.

Safety

• Local-first: All computation runs on-device; no genotype data is uploaded
• Reproducibility bundle: Successful scoring runs write reproducibility/ via shared ReproCommand / ReproPath helpers. commands.sh preserves the user's real --ancestry value and safe local paths; inputs.json stores SHA256 hashes only and never duplicates raw genotype data.
• Disclaimer: Every report includes the ClawBio medical disclaimer
• Cited sources: Every association entry carries a non-null PMID (enforced by a CI test). One entry (ALDH2 rs671 ESCC) uses PMID 22960999 (Wu et al. 2012 Nat Genet) with GWAS Catalog accession GCST001563; the entry note flags that the accession-to-PMID mapping was not independently confirmed via the Catalog. See data/PROVENANCE.md for full correction history.
• LCT entries removed in v1.3.0: All rs4988235 Lactose Intolerance entries were removed because (a) PMID 14507249 cited as Enattah 2002 resolves to an unrelated bladder-cancer paper, and (b) the EUR or=0.45 and non-EUR or=3.2–6.8 encoded opposite outcome framings for the same allele, manufacturing spurious AES of 7–15x.
• Soft posterior gating in v1.3.0: When ancestry confidence is "low" and top posterior < 0.35, disease risk scoring is skipped entirely with an explanatory message. Between 0.35–0.6 a caveat note is shown alongside results. User-supplied --ancestry overrides the gate.
• No hallucinated ORs: All effect sizes trace to the bundled ancestry_risk_associations.json
• AIM Fst gate (v1.4.0): Coverage counts only panel SNPs with Wright Fst ≥ 0.3, with a minimum of 30 informative markers. A 23andMe extract of 30 T2D SNPs must still abstain. The current bundled panel has five high-Fst markers, so automatic inference abstains unless the user supplies --ancestry. See issue #313.
• APOL1 recessive model: APOL1 G1/G2 use a compound-recessive model; per-allele log-additive OR is biologically wrong for this locus
• Combined OR is naive: combined_or is the product of independent per-SNP ORs (log-additive); it is NOT a validated aggregate risk score. N= in the report shows how many variants contribute so readers can judge the calculation
• No absolute risk claims: The Cornfield/baseline prevalence calculation has been removed to prevent double-counting

Agent Boundary

The agent (LLM) dispatches and explains results. The skill (Python) executes the inference and scoring. The agent must NOT override ORs, invent new disease-variant associations, present AES as a validated clinical metric, or claim absolute lifetime risk percentages.

Integration with Bio Orchestrator

Trigger conditions: routes here when:

• Query mentions genetic ancestry + disease risk together
• File is a 23andMe/AncestryDNA raw data file AND query is about disease risk stratified by population

Chaining partners:

• gwas-prs: for validated absolute risk scores with ancestry-appropriate PGS Catalog scores — always signpost this when users ask about lifetime risk
• pharmgx-reporter: after ancestry signal profiling, run pharmgx to add drug response context
• profile-report: ancestry-risk-profiler output feeds into the unified profile report

Maintenance

• Review cadence: Update ancestry_risk_associations.json when major multi-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses are published (Pan-UKB updates, Global Biobank Meta-Analysis Initiative releases)
• Staleness signals: New population-specific GWAS not yet in panel; GWAS Catalog accumulates new non-EUR studies
• Deprecation: Archive if a more comprehensive multi-ancestry PRS tool with per-ancestry calibration supersedes this approach

Citations

• Genovese et al. (2010) Science 329:841. PMID 20566908. APOL1 G1/G2 kidney disease (recessive compound model)
• Karczewski et al. (2020) Nature 581:434. PMID 32461654. gnomAD v3.1 allele frequencies for AISNP panel
• Nassir et al. (2009) BMC Genetics 10:39. PMID 19630973. DOI 10.1186/1471-2156-10-39. 93 AISNP panel for continental ancestry inference; does not validate a low-coverage implementation shortcut
• Kosoy et al. (2009) Human Mutation 30(1):69–78. PMID 18683858. DOI 10.1002/humu.20822. 128-marker AISNP set and 96/64/48/24-marker subsets; does not define this software's global Fst ≥ 0.3 gate
• Dubois et al. (2010) Nat Genet 42:295–302. PMID 20190752. Celiac disease GWAS (PTPN22 R620W)
• Wu et al. (2012) Nat Genet 44:1090–1093. PMID 22960999. GWAS Catalog GCST001563. ESCC GWAS in Chinese (ALDH2 rs671); two earlier wrong PMIDs (20686008, 22561518) were corrected, and the accession-to-PMID mapping is flagged for confirmation in the entry note
• Grant et al. (2006) Nat Genet 38:320–323. PMID 16415884. TCF7L2 T2D discovery
• Zeggini et al. (2007) Nat Genet 39:638–644. PMID 17463246. T2D replication
• Feder et al. (1996) Nat Genet 13:399–408. PMID 9068472. HFE hereditary haemochromatosis

Removed citations: Enattah et al. (2002) LCT lactase persistence — LCT rs4988235 entries removed in v1.3.0 (direction artifact + PMID 14507249 was wrong). PMID 22561518 (Wu 2012 ESCC) — resolves to Jin 2012 vitiligo GWAS.

See data/PROVENANCE.md for the full citation table with correction history.