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效率与协作 · SKILL.md

running-causalpy-experiments

running-causalpy-experiments

【效率与协作】Fit, summarize, plot, and interpret a chosen CausalPy experiment. Use after the causal method has been selected, including when configuring PyMC/sklearn models and scale-aware custom priors.

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技能说明

GitHub

name: running-causalpy-experiments description: Fit, summarize, plot, and interpret a chosen CausalPy experiment. Use after the causal method has been selected, including when configuring PyMC/sklearn models and scale-aware custom priors.

Running CausalPy Experiments

Use this skill when the CausalPy experiment class is already known or has just been selected by choosing-causalpy-methods. This skill is for execution: preparing data, instantiating the experiment, choosing a model backend, setting sane priors, inspecting outputs, plotting, and communicating results.

Workflow

  1. Load and validate a pandas DataFrame with the data layout required by the chosen experiment.
  2. Choose a backend: PyMC models for posterior uncertainty and priors, or sklearn-compatible regressors where the experiment supports OLS/sklearn.
  3. Configure the model before construction. For PyMC, set sample_kwargs and scale-aware priors when predictors or outcomes are not standardized.
  4. Instantiate the experiment. CausalPy experiments fit during initialization.
  5. Inspect outputs with summary(), effect_summary(), print_coefficients(), and plot() only where the chosen experiment supports them.
  6. Run relevant sensitivity checks through cp.Pipeline, cp.EstimateEffect, and cp.SensitivityAnalysis when robustness matters.

Model And Prior Guardrails

  • Do not blindly accept diffuse default priors when predictors and outcomes are on very different scales. Either standardize the modeling variables or pass scale-aware priors to the PyMC model.
  • For cp.pymc_models.LinearRegression, configure priors for beta and the observation noise inside y_hat.
  • For synthetic-control weight models, priors control donor-weight regularization and outcome noise; see WeightedSumFitter, SoftmaxWeightedSumFitter, and SyntheticDifferenceInDifferencesWeightFitter.
  • For PropensityScore, standardize continuous confounders or use coefficient priors that imply plausible log-odds shifts.
  • For InstrumentalVariableRegression, priors are passed at the experiment level through priors=... and should reflect the scale of both the treatment-stage and outcome-stage regressions.
  • Always check posterior diagnostics, prior predictive plausibility when available, coefficient magnitudes, counterfactual fit in the pre-period, and whether effect summaries are stable under reasonable prior alternatives.

Common Output Methods

  • experiment.summary(): Prints a method-specific summary where implemented.
  • experiment.effect_summary(): Returns a decision-ready structured effect summary where implemented.
  • experiment.plot(): Visualizes fitted values, counterfactuals, effects, or diagnostics where implemented.
  • experiment.print_coefficients(): Shows model coefficients for model-backed experiments.
  • result = cp.Pipeline(...).run(): Runs estimation, sensitivity checks, and report generation as a reproducible workflow.

Important Exceptions

  • InversePropensityWeighting.plot() is intentionally a stub. Use plot_ate() and plot_balance_ecdf() instead.
  • InversePropensityWeighting.effect_summary() is not implemented. Inspect ATE draws, overlap, balance, and weight stability instead.
  • InstrumentalVariable.plot(), summary(), and effect_summary() are not implemented, so inspect model outputs and first-stage/second-stage diagnostics directly.
  • PanelRegression.effect_summary() is not implemented because panel fixed-effects models report coefficient-level estimates rather than time-window impacts. Use summary(), print_coefficients(), and plot() or plot_coefficients().

References

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