---

name: prediction-markets description: "Use when the user asks about event probabilities, prediction market odds, what people are betting on, Polymarket/Kalshi prices, sports markets — or about the things you CANNOT get from a public API: historical price/volume/orderbook time series, smart-money positioning, whale leaderboards, wallet P&L, wallet identity and on-chain clustering, and canonical IDs matching the same question across venues. 55 endpoints over Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, Predict.Fun, Binance Futures, sports, and the UMA oracle. Pay-per-call in USDC via x402 — no Predexon account, no API key." triggers:

• "polymarket"
• "kalshi"
• "limitless"
• "predict.fun"
• "predexon"
• "prediction market"
• "event probability"
• "betting odds"
• "implied probability"
• "what are people betting on"
• "election odds"
• "crypto market odds"
• "binance futures"
• "yes/no market"
• "sports markets"
• "smart money"
• "smart wallet"
• "whale"
• "top traders"
• "top holders"
• "who is winning"
• "best traders"
• "copy trade"
• "leaderboard"
• "wallet pnl"
• "wallet profit"
• "trader performance"
• "wallet identity"
• "wallet cluster"
• "price history"
• "candles"
• "candlestick"
• "ohlcv"
• "orderbook"
• "order book history"
• "open interest"
• "volume history"
• "trade history"
• "cross-venue markets"
• "arbitrage"
• "uma oracle"

---

Prediction Markets (Predexon)

55 endpoints across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, Predict.Fun, Binance Futures, sports, and the UMA oracle — one x402 gateway, no Predexon account or API key.

What is worth paying for. Current market lists are free from public APIs. These are not, and cannot be backfilled after the fact:

• History — candlesticks, orderbook snapshots, volume charts, open interest, trade history. Built from continuous ingestion; nobody can reconstruct it retroactively.
• Smart money — leaderboards, cohort stats, top holders, which wallets are positioned where, and which markets high-performing wallets just entered.
• Wallet intelligence — profiles, P&L time series, identity metadata, and on-chain clustering (find the other wallets behind one address).
• Cross-venue canonical IDs — one question, matched across five venues. The basis for arbitrage and consensus.

How to Call from MCP

One tool, three params. Method auto-routes: POST when body is set, GET otherwise.

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/events", params: { limit: "10" } })

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/candlesticks/0xCONDITION_ID", params: { interval: "1440" } })

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/identities", body: {
  addresses: ["0xabc...", "0xdef..."]
}})

Paths are relative — no /api/v1/pm/ prefix. Use agent_id to bill a child agent's budget.

Paid calls can run in parallel on Base: each EIP-3009 authorization carries its own random nonce, so concurrent calls from one wallet cannot collide. The Solana payload has no nonce field — distinctness comes from the SDK (@blockrun/llm >= 3.8.4), so keep that floor if you fan out on Solana.

Current parameter contracts that prevent paid 4xx responses:

• Discover with markets/search (its search term is q), then resolve the selected market with polymarket/markets/keyset + condition_id.
• On polymarket/markets{,/keyset} the free-text filter is search, not q. Use status:"open" rather than Gamma's active/closed, and sort rather than order/ascending. end_after/end_before are supported (Unix seconds).
• Candlestick interval is integer minutes (1440, not 1h) and is optional — the server has a default. Which intervals a market can serve varies: 1440 may work where 60 returns a paid 400. Optional start_time/end_time are Unix seconds.
• polymarket/orderbooks requires token_id, start_time, and end_time; the times are Unix milliseconds.
• Smart-money needs a smart-wallet criterion: min_trades, min_volume, min_roi, min_realized_pnl, min_total_pnl, min_win_rate, or min_profit_factor. window only scopes the time range and is not sufficient alone (verified: window-only returns a paid 400). Use { window: "30d", min_trades: "100" }; narrower cohorts are fine.
• markets/listings is retired upstream (410 Gone) — the MCP blocks it before payment. The rest of the canonical layer went with it on 2026-08-04: bare markets, outcomes/{predexon_id}, matching-markets and matching-markets/pairs all return 404 Unknown Predexon endpoint before payment (verified live 2026-09-08). Only markets/search survived. No live /v1/pm route accepts a league param.

Two Pricing Tiers

Tier	Price	What
All endpoints	$0.0085 on Base ($0.0075 + the $0.001 network fee; Solana quotes $0.0075)	Market data, events, history, candles, orderbooks, trades, leaderboard, UMA, wallet analytics, smart money, identity + clustering, cross-venue search, Binance (sports/* is degraded upstream — see below; the gateway releases the payment on the upstream 500)

Pass-through pricing, 0% BlockRun margin — settles straight to Predexon's Base treasury.

Quick Decision Table — "User asks about X"

User wants…	path	Tier
Same question across venues / search every venue at once	markets/search (q)	2
Active Polymarket events	polymarket/events	1
Polymarket markets	polymarket/markets	1
Large result sets (stable paging)	polymarket/markets/keyset	1
Crypto up/down markets	polymarket/crypto-updown	1
Current/historical price of a token	polymarket/market-price/{token_id}	1
Price history (OHLCV)	polymarket/candlesticks/{condition_id}	1
OHLCV for one outcome	polymarket/candlesticks/token/{token_id}	1
Volume over time (YES/NO split)	polymarket/volume-chart/{condition_id}	1
Historical orderbook snapshots	polymarket/orderbooks	1
Historical trades	polymarket/trades	1
Merges / splits / redeems for a user	polymarket/activity	1
Cumulative volume for a market	polymarket/markets/{token_id}/volume	1
Open interest history	polymarket/markets/{condition_id}/open_interest	1
Positions (filterable)	polymarket/positions	1
Global smart-wallet leaderboard	polymarket/leaderboard	1
Leaderboard for one market	polymarket/leaderboard/market/{condition_id}	1
Cohort performance by trading style	polymarket/cohorts/stats	1
Top holders of a market	polymarket/market/{condition_id}/top-holders	1
Smart money on a market	polymarket/market/{condition_id}/smart-money	2
Markets smart wallets just entered	polymarket/markets/smart-activity	2
Full smart-wallet profile	polymarket/wallet/{wallet}	2
Per-market breakdown for a wallet	polymarket/wallet/{wallet}/markets	2
Wallets with similar portfolios	polymarket/wallet/{wallet}/similar	2
Wallet P&L + realized series	polymarket/wallet/pnl/{wallet}	2
Wallet open/historical positions	polymarket/wallet/positions/{wallet}	2
Wallet volume by BUY/SELL side	polymarket/wallet/volume-chart/{wallet}	2
Batch wallet profiles	polymarket/wallets/profiles	2
Filter wallets by markets traded	polymarket/wallets/filter	2
Wallet identity (ENS/Twitter/etc)	polymarket/wallet/identity/{wallet}	2
Bulk identity (≤200, POST)	polymarket/wallet/identities	2
On-chain cluster for a wallet	polymarket/wallet/{address}/cluster	2
UMA oracle questions by state	polymarket/uma/markets	1
UMA status + timeline for a market	polymarket/uma/market/{condition_id}	1
Kalshi markets	kalshi/markets	1
Kalshi trades / orderbooks	kalshi/trades, kalshi/orderbooks	1
⚠ Sports categories — degraded upstream since 2026-08-04, do not call	sports/categories	1
⚠ Sports markets by league — degraded, use markets/search + q= or polymarket/events + search=	sports/markets	1
⚠ One game, all venue outcomes — degraded	sports/markets/{game_id}	1
⚠ Equivalent sports outcomes — degraded	sports/outcomes/{predexon_id}	1
Limitless / Opinion / Predict.Fun markets	limitless/markets, opinion/markets, predictfun/markets	1
Their historical orderbook snapshots	limitless/orderbooks, opinion/orderbooks, predictfun/orderbooks	1
Binance candles / ticks	binance/candles/{symbol}, binance/ticks/{symbol}	2

Worked Examples

1. "What are people betting on right now?"

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/events", params: { limit: "10" } })

2. "What's the market saying about the 2028 election?"

Search every venue in one call — each hit carries its venue and IDs — then pull the chosen Polymarket market by condition_id.

blockrun_markets({ path: "markets/search", params: { q: "2028 presidential election", status: "open" } })
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/markets/keyset", params: { condition_id: "0xCONDITION_ID" } })   // full market record

3. "Show me this market's price history" (impossible from a free API)

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/candlesticks/0xCONDITION_ID", params: {
  interval: "1440", start_time: "<UNIX_SECONDS>", end_time: "<UNIX_SECONDS>"
} })
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/volume-chart/0xCONDITION_ID" })
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/markets/0xCONDITION_ID/open_interest" })
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/orderbooks", params: {
  token_id: "<TOKEN_ID>", start_time: "<UNIX_MILLISECONDS>", end_time: "<UNIX_MILLISECONDS>"
} })

4. "Who's smart money betting on in this market?" ← compound

Positioning → then profile the wallets behind it.

// 1. Which high-performing wallets are in this market, and on which side
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/market/0xCONDITION_ID/smart-money", params: {
  window: "30d", min_trades: "100"
} })

// 2. Profile the top wallet it returns — win rate, P&L, style
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/0xWHALE" })

// 3. What else are they in right now?
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/positions/0xWHALE" })

5. "This whale is up 400% — who are they really?" ← compound

Identity plus the on-chain cluster: one trader often runs many wallets.

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/identity/0xWHALE" })        // ENS, socials, portfolio
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/0xWHALE/cluster" })         // linked wallets + confidence
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/pnl/0xWHALE" })             // realized P&L series
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/0xWHALE/similar" })         // who trades like them

6. "Find me something to copy-trade" ← compound

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/leaderboard", params: { limit: "20" } })   // best wallets
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/markets/smart-activity" })                 // where they just moved
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/cohorts/stats" })                          // which style is working

Then trade it with blockrun_polymarket (see skills/polymarket-trading/SKILL.md). Real money — always dry-run first.

7. "Is the same bet cheaper on another venue?" ← arbitrage

matching-markets and matching-markets/pairs were removed upstream (404 before payment). One search returns the same question from every venue; compare the prices in the result.

blockrun_markets({ path: "markets/search", params: { q: "Fed cuts rates in December", status: "open" } })
// → Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, Predict.Fun hits side by side; the spread is the arbitrage

8. "Who's ahead in tonight's NBA games?"

blockrun_markets({ path: "markets/search",    params: { q: "NBA", status: "open" } })      // every venue's NBA markets
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/events", params: { search: "NBA", status: "open" } })  // Polymarket game events
blockrun_markets({ path: "kalshi/markets",    params: { search: "NBA" } })                  // Kalshi's

Do not route this to sports/*. All four sports/* paths have returned a Predexon 500 on every call since 2026-08-04 (re-verified 2026-09-08). The gateway still routes them but withdrew them from discovery, and it releases the payment on that upstream 500 — the tool says "nothing was charged" when the gateway's own "payment NOT charged" confirmation is in the response, and otherwise points at blockrun_wallet action:"report". Do not use markets with league= either: that route was removed on 2026-08-04 and 404s before payment, and no live /v1/pm route accepts league. The sports routes come back here the day Predexon repairs them.

9. "Is this market about to resolve?"

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/uma/markets", params: { state: "proposed" } })
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/uma/market/0xCONDITION_ID" })   // dispute timeline

Method Routing — When to Use body

Almost everything is GET → use params. Only bulk identity takes a body:

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/identities", body: { addresses: ["0x1", "0x2"] } })

Paging Large Result Sets

Prefer keyset over offset — stable across writes, faster on big tables.

const p1 = blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/markets/keyset", params: { limit: "100" } })
// then pass the returned pagination.next_key back in:
blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/markets/keyset", params: { limit: "100", pagination_key: "<next_key>" } })

polymarket/events/keyset works the same way.

Notes on Response Shape

Predexon returns raw upstream responses; shape varies by venue.

• Polymarket — usually { data: [...] } or { events: [...] }
• Kalshi — usually { markets: [...] } with ticker, yes_bid, no_bid. Tickers look like KXBTC-25MAR14 (series + expiry).
• Canonical v2 — { markets: [...] } with predexon_id + venue_listings
• Print the raw response when exploring a path you have not used before.

Prices are probabilities 0–1. 0.62 means the market implies 62%.

Python SDK (for non-MCP use)

Inside the MCP, use blockrun_markets above. For standalone scripts:

from blockrun_llm import setup_agent_wallet   # setup_agent_solana_wallet() on Solana
client = setup_agent_wallet()

client.pm("polymarket/candlesticks/0xCONDITION_ID", interval="1440")
client.pm_query("polymarket/wallet/identities", {"addresses": ["0xabc"]})

Requires pip install blockrun-llm and a funded USDC wallet (client.get_balance()).