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name: chronos-bolt-and-original description: "Use Chronos-Bolt and original Chronos/T5 pipelines for univariate forecasting, quantiles, samples, DataFrames, embeddings, fev, and model-family selection." disable-model-invocation: true metadata: disco-role: operating license: Apache 2.0

Chronos-Bolt and original Chronos/T5

Use this sub-skill when the task is about the Chronos-Bolt or original Chronos/T5 families from the chronos-forecasting package:

• load a Bolt or original Chronos model from a Hugging Face model ID, an S3 URI, or a local directory;
• choose between Bolt direct quantile forecasts and original Chronos sample-path forecasts;
• run tensor/list forecasts with predict or predict_quantiles;
• run univariate long-format pandas forecasts with predict_df;
• obtain encoder embeddings with embed;
• use the base predict_fev bridge for fev tasks;
• handle prediction-length, dtype/device, cache, and shape issues.

Route first

• For Chronos-2, multivariate targets, covariates, future_df, cross_learning, Chronos-2 fine-tuning, or Chronos-2 deployment choices, route to ../chronos-2-forecasting/.
• For detailed pandas schema/frequency/covariate validation, route to ../data-formats-and-validation/.
• For training, benchmark evaluation scripts, aggregate scores, or SageMaker/cloud operations, route to ../training-evaluation-deployment/.

Load these references

1. references/api-reference.md — exact public signatures, tensor shapes, forecast-type differences, loading behavior, and family properties.
2. references/workflows.md — practical loading, tensor/list prediction, quantile/mean, DataFrame, embeddings, fev, and model-selection recipes.
3. references/troubleshooting.md — shape, padding/NaN, sample-vs-quantile, prediction-length, S3/HF cache, dtype/device, and dependency fixes.

Bundled safe script

• scripts/bolt_original_smoke.py defaults to import/signature inspection when no model is provided.
• It only loads a model when --model-id-or-path is supplied; non-local Hugging Face or S3 identifiers additionally require --allow-remote.
• Use it to validate that an installed package can import the public APIs and, with an explicit user model, run a tiny tensor forecast.

Minimal selection rule

• Prefer Chronos-Bolt for fast univariate probabilistic forecasts where direct quantile output is desired.
• Prefer original Chronos/T5 when the user explicitly needs sample trajectories, sampling controls (num_samples, temperature, top_k, top_p), or compatibility with original Chronos behavior.
• Prefer Chronos-2 instead of this sub-skill for covariates, multivariate forecasting, or the latest model family.