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name: Reforecast slug: reforecast version: 0.1.0 status: draft category: residential_multifamily subsystem: residential_multifamily pack_type: workflow targets:

• claude_code stale_data: | Same assumptions as budget_build. Reforecast inherits live actuals through the asof month and preserves forward-looking assumptions unless overlay cites a change basis. Forecast accuracy is a trailing-6-month metric; drift informs assumption recalibration. applies_to: segment: [middle_market] form_factor: [garden, walk_up, wrap, suburban_mid_rise, urban_mid_rise] lifecycle: [stabilized, renovation, lease_up, recap_support] management_mode: [self_managed, third_party_managed, owner_oversight] role: [property_manager, regional_manager, asset_manager, reporting_finance_ops_lead] output_types: [operating_review, memo, kpi_review] decision_severity_max: action_requires_approval references: reads:
  • reference/normalized/payroll_assumptions__{org}.csv
  • reference/normalized/insurance_tax_assumptions__{market}.csv
  • reference/normalized/utility_benchmarks__{market}.csv
  • reference/normalized/market_rents__{market}_mf.csv
  • reference/normalized/concession_benchmarks__{market}_mf.csv
  • reference/normalized/collections_benchmarks__{region}_mf.csv
  • reference/normalized/unit_turn_cost_library__{market}.csv
  • reference/derived/budget_escalator_assumptions__{market}.csv
  • reference/normalized/approval_threshold_defaults.csv writes: [] metrics_used:
• noi
• noi_margin
• forecast_accuracy
• revenue_variance_to_budget
• expense_variance_to_budget
• economic_occupancy
• collections_rate
• bad_debt_rate
• concession_rate
• dscr
• debt_yield
• budget_attainment escalation_paths:
• kind: forecast_final_submission to: asset_manager -> finance/reporting lead -> approval_request(row 14 for lender)
• kind: owner_submission to: asset_manager -> executive -> approval_request(row 15 or 16) approvals_required:
• final_forecast_submission description: | Produces a reforecast that inherits actuals through the as-of month, preserves or revises forward-looking assumptions with citation, and surfaces the delta vs. budget and vs. prior forecast. Includes forecast-accuracy calibration and NOI sensitivity.

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Reforecast

Workflow purpose

Take the latest actuals, combine with forward assumptions, and produce a reforecast that shows how year-end is likely to land vs. budget and prior forecast. Preserve assumption trail. Cite every revision.

Trigger conditions

• Explicit: "reforecast Q2", "update forecast", "year-end landing", "roll forecast through December".
• Implicit: as-of month closes; material variance vs. prior forecast; market-side event (rent comp update, insurance renewal, tax reassessment).
• Recurring: per org overlay calendar (often monthly or quarterly).

Inputs (required / optional)

Input	Type	Required	Notes
Actuals through asof	table	required	GL closed through month
Prior forecast	table	required	for delta tracking
Budget	table	required	anchor
Rent roll snapshot	table	required	for forward revenue
Assumption references	csv / yaml	required	all budget_build refs
Change basis notes	memo	optional	any revision > overlay materiality

Outputs

Output	Type	Shape
Reforecast by line item	table	monthly through year end
NOI + margin + covenant view	kpi_review	budget vs. prior forecast vs. new forecast
Delta commentary	memo	revisions and basis
Forecast accuracy view	kpi_review	forecast_accuracy trailing 6
Owner submission draft	operating_review	if applicable

Required context

Asset_class, segment, form_factor, lifecycle_stage, management_mode, market.

Process

1. Snapshot actuals through asof. Confirm GL close; flag any open items.
2. Compute variance to budget (MTD, YTD, RTG). revenue_variance_to_budget, expense_variance_to_budget. Classify drivers.
3. Forward revenue. Roll forward leases; apply current market reference and concession posture; revise if actuals show drift.
4. Forward expense. Apply escalators and assumptions; any revision cites basis (overlay update, re-bid, known scope change).
5. Recompute NOI, margin, DSCR, DY.
6. Forecast accuracy calibration. Compute trailing forecast_accuracy; surface systematic bias.
7. Sensitivity. Overlay stress cases on forward months.
8. Comparison table. Budget vs. prior forecast vs. new forecast.
9. Submission path. Owner or lender final submission opens approval_request row 14 / 15 / 16.
10. Confidence banner. All reference as_of_date and status tags surfaced.

Metrics used

noi, noi_margin, forecast_accuracy, revenue_variance_to_budget, expense_variance_to_budget, economic_occupancy, collections_rate, bad_debt_rate, concession_rate, dscr, debt_yield, budget_attainment.

Reference files used

Same as budget_build (assumption inheritance).

Escalation points

• Final submission: row 14 (lender), 15 / 16 (LP / board).
• Assumption revision above overlay materiality: asset_manager sign-off.

Required approvals

• Final forecast submission (row 14 / 15 / 16).

Failure modes

1. Silent assumption change. Fix: every revision cites basis; change basis memo required above materiality.
2. Not recalibrating when forecast_accuracy shows bias. Fix: calibration is a step.
3. Forward revenue built on stale market reference. Fix: surface staleness; if > overlay threshold, refresh first via workflows/market_rent_refresh.
4. Submitting final to lender without approval. Fix: row 14 gate.

Edge cases

• Property mid-renovation: split classic and renovated unit lines; distinct assumptions.
• Debt refi during remaining year: sensitivity on DSCR / DY post-refi; flag timing uncertainty.
• Insurance renewal pending: hold assumption at current rate with sensitivity; cite pending renewal.
• Tax reassessment filed: show appeal scenario alongside base.
• Lease-up still active: stabilization pace remains anchor; reforecast tied to stabilization_pace_vs_plan.

Example invocations

1. "Reforecast Ashford Park through year end using March actuals."
2. "How is Willow Creek landing vs. budget this year?"
3. "Build the quarterly reforecast for the South End portfolio."

Example outputs

Output — Reforecast summary (abridged, Ashford Park, asof 2026-03)

Actuals through March. Revenue within band vs. budget; expenses showing utilities drift per seasonal pattern.

Forward revenue. Roll-forward applied; market reference refreshed 2026-03-31; concessions tracking overlay.

Forward expense. Utilities assumption revised with basis memo; insurance held at current rate pending renewal.

Year-end landing. NOI within band of budget; noi_margin within overlay target; dscr and debt_yield meet covenants.

Forecast accuracy. Trailing 6 months within overlay band.

Submission. Owner draft prepared; approval_request row 15 opened.

Confidence banner. Assumption references carry as_of_date and status. Change basis memo attached for utilities revision.