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name: renew-or-churn-call description: "Score an account's renewal likelihood on a five-level scale with probabilities, and name the next move for the account owner. Use when asked will this account renew, what's the churn risk on this account, should we run a save play, or when a renewal is 30–120 days out and the owner needs a calibrated read rather than a gut feel. Produces the account state in a fixed schema, the five-level renewal score with a probability per level and confidence, the mapped next move, and the single signal that would change the call." version: 1.0.0

Renew or Churn Call

Health scores drift into vibes because nobody defines the levels. This skill fixes five levels — from will churn to will renew and expand — each with the evidence that puts an account there, and returns a probability for every level. The next move is mapped to the level, so the output is an action, not a colour.

Where this sits

After cs-health-scorecard (which gathers the dimensions) and before renewal-playbook or cs-escalation-brief (which run the move). This one decides which move.

What This Skill Produces

• The account state — six fields, filled from CRM and usage evidence
• The renewal score — one of five defined levels, with a probability per level and a confidence score
• The next move — mapped from the level (save play, playbook, discovery call, standard motion, expansion)
• The flip signal — the one change in state that would move the level
• The forecast line — for the renewals sheet: level, probability, move, owner, date

Required Inputs

Ask for these if not provided; mark unknowns rather than guessing:

• account — name, ARR, renewal date, term
• usage — active seats vs licensed, 90-day trend, key feature adoption
• engagement — last executive touch, QBR held, support tickets open/closed, NPS or CSAT
• champion — still in role? sponsor aligned?
• commercial — price change at renewal, competitor in play, procurement signals
• history — prior escalations, credits, missed commitments

Framework: Five Defined Levels

Level	Evidence that puts an account here	Next move
0 · will churn	Champion gone, usage collapsing, competitor selected, or procurement told us	Escalate now: exec-to-exec call, save play with a concession budget
1 · at risk	Usage down, exec contact stale, open escalation or price objection	Run the renewal playbook with a 60-day save plan
2 · uncertain	Mixed signals: healthy usage but no sponsor, or engaged but under-adopted	Discovery call to find the sponsor and the value gap
3 · likely renew	Usage steady, sponsor engaged, no blockers, price accepted	Standard renewal motion; confirm timeline with procurement
4 · renew and expand	Growing usage, seats capped, expansion asked for	Expansion proposal before the renewal paperwork

Thresholds. Act on the mapped move when confidence ≥ 0.55 and the top level's probability ≥ 0.6. Otherwise hold and look at the shape: a 0.40 / 0.40 split between at risk and likely renew is a discovery call, not a save play — the split itself says the sponsor question is unanswered.

Getting probabilities. Any calibrated decision model that scores against ordered, described levels serves this contract; the repo ships an adapter (node integrations/jev/decide.mjs renew-or-churn-call --state state.json, contract in integrations/jev/decisions/). Without one, the assistant estimates and labels it.

Output Format

Renewal call: [account] · ARR [x] · renews [date]

State (six rows, unknown where unknown)

Score

Level	Probability
0 will churn	0.xx
1 at risk	0.xx
2 uncertain	0.xx
3 likely renew	0.xx
4 renew and expand	0.xx

Expected level: x.x · Confidence: 0.xx · Source: [model / estimate]

Verdict: [act: move] or [hold — shape says: …] Flip signal: [the one state change that moves the level, and who would know] Forecast line: [account] · L[n] p=0.xx · [move] · [owner] · [date]

Quality Checks

• Every state field is evidence or unknown; no invented usage numbers
• All five probabilities shown; expected level computed
• The move is the one mapped to the level, not a freelance idea
• A split distribution is read as a question, not averaged into a colour
• The forecast line is one line and fits the renewals sheet

Anti-Patterns

• RAG colours with no definition — "amber" that means something different to each CSM
• Averaging a bimodal distribution into "medium risk"
• Save play by reflex — running concessions on an account whose problem is a missing sponsor
• Ignoring the champion field — the single most predictive signal, most often left blank
• Letting the score replace the call — the account owner owns the forecast; this is the evidence

Example Trigger Phrases

• "Will Acme renew in November? Give me a real read."
• "Churn risk on this account — save play or not?"
• "Score this renewal and tell me the next move."